Published: 12:23 PM, Mar 30, 2022
I think I am somewhat of an exception in my group of family and friends who predominantly hold positions in the new clerisy. Jobs in medicine, education and the public sector. I've spent a long career working in a range of financial institutions, large and small at sometimes at a fairly senior level and that really stands out.
One thing I have noticed is that despite other people knowing of my experience and qualifications in this industry nobody really ever asks me how the economy is doing. Are there risks? Will circumstances arise in the future where I could lose my house? Is the government actually doing a good job of managing the economy? Stuff that I actually know a lot about, Unexciting stuff sure, but very important stuff. Nobody is really interested.
I get asked often about how my job in finance is going on, casually as people do. When I say it is fine I these days usually drop in "but I expect things to be tough as there is going to be a large recession coming down the line" people genuinely seem taken aback. I mean, the reasons if explained would go over most heads so I usually just leave it with "it's a typical economic cycle and the signs are there that we are entering a down phase".
But people who work under the public sector just do not grasp this, there is no economic cycle. Bananas getting 30% more expensive is inconvenient but nothing to anyone who holds a decent wage from a government position who will never run out of money as they can just print some more.
In these short conversations I am going to start asking people how many people they know that produce items that can be traded for something of value. Food, watches, clothes, houses whatever. Economic production to create a tangible asset. I know what the answer will be.
We have not only entered into the beginnings of a very dangerous phase in the world's economy, a period of scarcity with a massive rise in population, but also nobody has the slightest clue what that actually means. Less things and more demand, much more demand and much less things. It's a simple concept beyond the rump of the population.
I remember when I was young it was common to grow produce, devoting large sections of the garden to vegetable production. As we got further away from the war this seemed to die out. I truly believe we are going to go back to a period where this is normal.
The safest thing in 2008 would have been to let the whole system crash and build our way back up, but we haven't, we reduced interest rates to zero and borrowed much more debt. We now have money that is on the verge of being worthless and the best thing people can have just now are assets or the ability to create them. Even if it is just vegetables in the garden.